Syria: What A Mess

It is difficult to be sure what is happening, because there are gaps between what is said to be happening and what is truly happening. The accidental targeting (was it really an accident with all that technology?) of Syrian government forces and the killing of loads of Assad’s soldiers by the US led coalition  will have created bitterness and outrage in Damascus which must have consequences. I fear the tragic bombing of the aid convoy is part of that. Maybe not officially but at the local command level.

It is impossible to fight a war of achievement with so many conflicting a variable forces engaged and players at the side, fueling arming and in some cases joining in. It can only now be a war of attrition, destruction and annihilation which goes on until there is nothing left. At the heart of the problem which is daily costing lives is the misguided mantra that no peace  is possible unless Assad goes. This leaves him no way forward than to fight to the bitter end, and nothing to gain from talking peace. Moreover the hopeless fantasy of some moderate opposition government in waiting leaves the Russians no option but to side with Assad in order to avoid another Libya.

The best thing now would be to abandon Syria and all its factions and hand the whole thing over to the Russians, who have a stake in the country, to resolve and to concentrate the US led effort on the removal of IS from Iraq. Even if that can be achieved the likelihood of Iraq becoming a failed state is very high so there will be a lot effort required keep it from imploding. More than enough to keep West busy for years to come.

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