Carney’s Latest: Some Sympathy

This Blog has some sympathy for central bankers generally. They are non-political yet they have to carry out political orders and deal with financial consequences of political mistakes and miscalculations. Most of them know that the current structure of free market globalization is failing ordinary people and is therefore in decline. In the UK, in spite of promises by Osborne to re-balance the economy and declarations by Cameron who does not have much grasp of economics that he has, Osborne has not in fact succeeded. This is because the ever forecasting Chancellor has taken the soft option and rebuilt the shattered Brown model economic settlement with its reliance on house price inflation, cheap imports and  high personal borrowing almost exactly as it was before, although with rather stronger, but not invulnerable, banks.

After Brexit we are still in the throes of a political crisis without a functioning government except for emergencies and an opposition which has gone mad. Financial mayhem, tasted in the first few hours, has been averted by the timely interventions of Mark Carney; apparently the Bank of England was the only government institution to consider the prospect of Brexit and get together a plan. Even the Brexiteers have not bothered, let alone the Remain core of the government. His warnings that there is a slowdown coming, which there is little that he and his colleagues can do about, is timely. He also warned that personal and household debt is dangerously high. It demonstrates the perverse idiocy of the current economic model, that the only thing he can do to help is to making bank lending easier.

The good news is that the pound is now down to near $1.31. Every point it falls, it makes the way through this mess easier, and every point it rises it makes that way more difficult. But either way you need to have a plan.

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