There has been a big bounce in the market as the shock of Brexit wears off. There will be more plunges of course because the real uncertainties of what the impact will be on the UK’s economy remain. Additionally there is political confusion and deep divisions in the country itself of a kind unknown in modern times. All the chickens set free in the Thatcher consensus economic model are now coming home to roost. Even the EU is shaken and talk of a change of direction for globalisation is now widespread because it does not work well enough for ordinary working people, i.e the majority. So there is a little clarity in any sphere, an unknown set of circumstances for all who trade the market now. It will not be a bull market, but it may not be a bear either. More a static market with bounces up and down.
Then there is Scotland. It is now acting with political independence and there is a very real prospect of it leaving the Union and taking its oil with it. Two land borders with EU countries, Ireland and Scotland could provoke a serious emigration of business to the more convenient environment for trade. Moving from London to Frankfurt is one thing but to Edinburgh is a much lesser thing.
Finally the only bright light is the fall in the value of the pound. Every point above $1.30 diminishes the chance of any easy way through a very dark wood with many ogres lurking.