Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

The move by the tennis authorities to cut Wimbledon from the ranking points system in retaliation for the ban on Russian players is right.

I absolutely disagree  with the current fever for banning individuals from sport, or anything else, just because they are Russian. Individuals are not their government and to ban or punish people just because of their nationality, or race, is a monstrous step back into the darkest past. We all know, and do not need to be reminded of, the genocide which has been the ultimate outcome of such a concept.

Like minded nations can take whatever action they agree upon when confronting an adversary. But it betrays the very values the West is supposed to protect, to sanction people unconnected to politics or the military, just because of the colour of their skin or the flag of their passport.

Adolf Hitler is reviled as the greatest tyrant in history. Yet behind this well-deserved image, there was a man with personal and political secrets known to very few and almost unknown to conventional historians. This remarkable novel reveals his hitherto unknown connection with England, including a secret pact with Churchill. It is based on the personal story of the author’s close family and includes a non-fiction Author’s Memoir. This gives personal biographical details and recollections, which reinforce Tor Raven’s conviction that his interpretation of real historical events is more accurate than the accepted truth. He gives you the opportunity to be the judge.

A quick answer is world events. The pandemic recovery, labour shortages, supply chains, gas prices, Brexit, Covid surge in China, war in the Ukraine. The key point is that human history in one long chain of events, some good, some bad. What effect those events have on individuals or the society or country in which they live, depends on how the government of the day reacts.

The crisis we are now in is not just about the above list  of general causes. It is about the government’s ability to do something about it. Never mind whether you approve of the action, does it have the tools in the box to do it? The answer is no. At least not now.

With globalisation came the rise of the financial sectors world wide and the power of the  politically independent central banks. Since they were caught napping in the crash of 2008, when the entire financial system was on the brink, they have printed their way out of trouble and gone on printing. The initial effect was to inflate the value of fixed assets while inflation generally remained historically low. But now inflation has spread like a forest fire into every nook and cranny of the economy and has to be dealt with. How do you do that? You raise interest rates.

Not from nothing to nearly nothing. In real money. 5%, 6%, 7% or even higher. You squeeze the velocity out of the money system and make money expensive. It triggers a recession, allowing an economic reboot, but it is quickly effective.  Asset froth dissolves, inefficient companies go bust, new start ups grow to fill the gaps.

Decisions like this are inherently political. Who shall go to the wall? Who shall be saved? Where are the priorities? These decisions require control of interest rates, borrowing terms, social priorities, credit lines, inflation levels and a host of ancillary elements to be the remit of the treasuries, ie governments, not  central banks.

The Treasury is ultimately subject to a mandate from the people via the government they elect. But the banks answer to the markets and markets always act in their own interests and that of the financial sector. The Tories would say sound money is the core. It is. But under the stewardship of the seriously incompetent Bank of England and the hysteria of the markets, this is exactly what we have now not got.

Unless somebody gets a grip  soon, this will go from a cost of living crisis to a financial crisis. And then to an historic Great Financial Crisis. It is not too late to stop this, or at least make it manageable. There are millions already under financial pressures unknown in modern times. To deal with all this the government has to have a coherent joined up plan for containment, revival and ultimately production led growth. The march of the makers, which never got started after 2010, will be sorely needed.

So far the government has been over confident that inflation is just a blip and over pragmatic in its response. To many it is out of touch, with only a thin grasp of social priorities and cold to the suffering of the poorest. In the end it will be this economic storm which determines the future of Boris, rather than Partygate or war in Ukraine. As for the dream of Brexit? Too many have woken up to the reality of this crackpot project. It is no longer an electoral triumph propelling Boris along, but a millstone which, added to everything else,  might finally drag him down.

The West is making sure that Putin becomes the western world’s number one ogre. In its backing for Ukraine the West can see no bad in its new ally and no good in Russia, its old adversary. I have repeatedly warned of the dangers of this partisan approach to a humanitarian disaster on an epic scale.  The more arms that pour into Ukraine the more will die, not just in the military but ordinary men, women and children, old and young, too. Equally the more resistance Ukraine is able to offer, the more heavy handed the Russian invasion will become. Russia will not back down until it has something to show for its losses and Ukraine will not make peace until it sees it has squeezed the West dry. So a war of attrition will go on grinding down all civilised values in its wake.

To end it, Ukraine must feel that it has secured the independence and integrity of much, though not all, of its territory and Russia must be able to demonstrate that it has secured a neutral buffer between itself and NATO.

Unfortunately the initial Russian miscalculations about a divided West and a potential welcoming Ukraine heartland, have proved political blunders of historic proportions. Nothing unites democracies faster than the aggression of a dictatorship or autocracy. And nothing unites a somewhat divided nation faster than the full scale invasion by a foreign power. So a slumbering, fragmented NATO woke up big time and bonded back to a single formidable military entity. Moreover friendly neutrals, Sweden and Finland, are now likely to join fearing, I think wrongly, that Putin has his eye on them.

Meanwhile the feared Russian army appears to struggle at the tactical level when confronted by the professional elements of the Ukrainian military, relying a good deal on scorched earth bombardments of infrastructure with the inevitable collateral damage to civilian homes and lives. This increases both Ukrainian resistance and the West’s  willingness to provide ever more  capable weapons. The West now senses the Ukraine can work military miracles if armed sufficiently. Silly speeches by Liz Truss and other UK ministers,  in my view little better than ignorant war mongering, are evidence of a desire to humiliate Russia. This is a very bad idea.

I have  all my life admired Russia. It has been our ally against Napoleon, The Kaiser and Hitler. Its contribution in WWII was critical to the defeat of the Nazis and undoubtedly saved millions of allied lives, while costing tens of millions of Russian casualties. Russian science, literature, music and art is in the top league. Their preference for a  tough leader, a Czar however titled, is rooted in that history of trauma and sacrifice. This is not to say Russia is always in the right but it is to say Russia is not always in the wrong.

There can be no final peace in Europe unless and until all Europe is united together within a framework of common institutions and purposes. Put simply at some point Russia and all the component countries of the European parts of the old Soviet Union must eventually be welcomed into the EU and NATO. On the road to that goal are many potholes. Some kind of interim settlement requiring a lot of give and less take will be required between Russia and Ukraine and between  the West and Russia. But the goal of such a coming together must remain. It is the only one which makes sense, guarantees peace in Europe and offers real prospects of a better future for all the nations of the European continent, whatever their culture and history.