Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

Set in the mid nineteen nineties, this fast moving thriller lifts the curtain on sex, sleaze and corruption in high places as the long reign of the government totters to an end, following the ousting of the iconic Margaret Thatcher. The novel catches the mood of those times with a host of fictional characters who engage in political intrigue, sex, money laundering and murder, pursued by an Irish investigative journalist and his girlfriend, the daughter of a cabinet minister found dead in a hotel room after bondage sex.

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    Malcolm Blair-Robinson U.S        

    Malcolm Blair-Robinson U.K.

This Blog, as regular readers know, constantly laments the chronic imbalances in the UK economy. Now the Chief Economist at the BoE has drawn attention to the lack of adequate investment by corporates, who are giving shareholders first pull at the cash generated by profits. Apparently in 1970 £10 in every £100 of profit was paid out in dividends; now the payout figure is £60. The result is chronic underinvestment which is inhibiting growth. It also inflates assets above their worth and could be described as one of several root causes of the dysfunction growing in the way the UK economy works.

In the strategic sense it is one of the most important pieces of news to appear today. It is a shame that few will heed it.

Things are now getting out of control as a consequence of the knock on effects of the migrant crisis in Calais and an industrial dispute by French ferry workers. Both the French and the British authorities blame each other. Both are at fault. French police are slapdash about enforcing law and order in the vicinity of the Tunnel entrance outside Calais and the British have made no attempt to find a solution to the issue of a diaspora of thousands trying to get into the UK. An extreme solution would be to build a large camp near Dover on land owned by the MOD, allow all the migrants in, detain them in the camp, then repatriate them all to their country of origin, regardless of the conditions there. Such a heartless policy would cause an outcry and rightly so. But somewhere between it and the mess at the moment lies a manageable path which combines compassion and level headedness into a plan to gain control.

So far there is failure at every level in the EU over this diaspora. There is no concerted effort to hunt down the traffickers, there is no EU wide plan to relocate the migrants and there is no forceful effort to prevent the boats setting sail from the North African coast. There are fragmented efforts in all these areas which are not effective. Britain has been a leading exponent of all the failed interventions which have contributed to the conditions which are allowing this terrible industry of human despair to prosper and therefore it behoves the United Kingdom, so often puffed up about its place of influence in the world, not to turn its back but to get stuck in.

There is more nonsense being talked in this leadership election than in any similar event in any political party for the last fifty years. These are the facts.

Political cycles are similar to economic cycles but longer and follow a natural process. In nature rain is needed to alleviate drought, but if the rain comes and does not stop there is a flood and people again yearn for drought. In other words the solution in one circumstance becomes the problem in another. As Lord Lawson recently pointed out there have been two great political weathers since the end of World War Two. The Attlee Consensus, which crated the welfare state, a mixed economy with a lot of state engagement and a priority for social justice, came first. Both the main political parties stayed with this model until in the 1970s inefficiency, overmanning and industrial strife led to such an uncompetitive economic performance that the UK became the first industrialised country in history to need a bailout form the IMF.

The result of the debacle was Thatcherism. This rolled back the state, denationalised all the utilities and industries in state ownership, curbed the unions, and decimated large parts of out of date industry. The welfare state remained largely intact, within it the jewel of the health service, but talk of social justice faded and was replaced with social mobility and aspiration. It was generally accepted as the best medicine for the country’s condition and a consensus built up around Thatcher’s nostrums which were followed by New Labour. NL gained three election victories as a kind of Thatcher Light or Pink Thatcher party. Most, but not all, of the current leadership contenders still wear Thatcher Pink and their friends trawl the media saying that a move to the left will put Labour out of power for a generation etc. They haven’t a clue what they are talking about.

Because the Thatcher era is over. It has become top heavy and powered by debt, over inflating assets, unable to balance its budget without attacking the weakest in society and it runs an economy which operates a trade deficit which is out of control, because it is based on consumption in a country which makes next to nothing it consumes. The gap between rich and poor grows by the hour and the phenomena of food banks and sleeping rough challenge the very  notion of a fair and just society.

Labour’s response to Thatcher’s early victories was to swing more to the left, with calamitous results, because it was offering the very recipe which had failed so recently. But now it is the Right which is failing and the electorate has actually moved to the Left. New Labour is now an irrelevant noise which real people ignore. It cannot win because the ground it would occupy has been seized by a revitalised Tory party, which Osborne has moved from the Centre Right to the Centre Left.

But that is not a problem for Labour because almost all the votes up for grabs, and not committed as a lifetime gift to the Tory tribe, are on the left. The figures bear this out. Only once, in 1997, did New Labour improve on Neil Kinnock’s total in 1992. Since that first Blair victory they have been unable even to match it. Only twice have they even been able to beat Kinnock’s 1987 total. Indeed at every election since Blair’s first, new Labour’s total has fallen. Except for 2015, when it went up for the first time in 18 years. Because for the first time it did not call itself New Labour and shifted just a little to the left.

Labour’s defeat in 2015 came not from failing to convince entrepreneurs. It came from the anti-austerity SNP which wiped out Scottish Labour and from UKIP which picked up about  3 million working class votes in England which should have gone to Labour.  The Tories did not win. They coasted to victory on the lowest Tory win in terms of votes since before WWII. Indeed Cameron got a million fewer votes in 2015 than Churchill did in 1950. And Churchill lost.

The Corbyn campaign understands all this. That is why they have the momentum.

Set in the mid nineteen nineties, this fast moving thriller lifts the curtain on sex, sleaze and corruption in high places as the long reign of the government totters to an end, following the ousting of the iconic Margaret Thatcher. The novel catches the mood of those times with a host of fictional characters who engage in political intrigue, sex, money laundering and murder, pursued by an Irish investigative journalist and his girlfriend, the daughter of a cabinet minister found dead in a hotel room after bondage sex.

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When it was announced that there was to be a new Political Editor for the BBC,one was left wondering who would be chosen from the best talent pool in political journalism. They are all good and some are very good indeed, but I did mention to a friend that I thought Laura Kuenssberg could well be in the running. So this Blog welcomes her appointment and offers its congratulations. It is good news that the redoubtable Nick Robinson will be joining Today as a presenter. Most BBC current affairs programmes report the news, but Today makes it.

An idea to stimulate economic growth without further government borrowing. Written in plain English and very easy to follow, this is the only really fresh approach out there to the intractable problems of the UK economy, and it is just beginning to be noticed in important places. Buy! Download only .99p Paperback £2.99

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The Greek Parliament has passed the second tranche of the Euro Group’s demands before bailout negotiations can begin. That this has happened is in part due to the Greek desire to stay in the eurozone and in part to the remarkable political leadership of Alexis Tsipras. It is now critical to the future of the euro that Germany modifies its position to ensure that an agreement is reached which offers a doable path for Greece’s economy to return to growth and that the debt mountain will be reduced to a level which can credibly be serviced.

The Euro Group now needs to recognise that it has a significant responsibility to sort out its currency. At present anybody will agree that Greece’s current position would be infinitely better if the euro had never been heard of. The same for Italy, Spain and Portugal. That is not a good report.

BROWSE MY BOOKS WITH THESE LINKS 

    Malcolm Blair-Robinson U.S        

    Malcolm Blair-Robinson U.K.