The US Presidential Election is a real fight to the finish. As previously sated on this blog, we take the view that the election is historically Romney’s and therefore his to lose. If Obama keeps the Presidency it will be a triumph against many odds. Abroad Obama is the overwhelming preference for the man to lead America, among its allies, but Americans themselves are not so sure. Their natural instinct is to change leaders when the economy is in trouble unless recovering is fully on track; there is recovery but it is thus far patchy and uncertain. But they have another instinct, to back their President in a crisis if he is seen to be doing well as Commander-in-Chief.
Lincoln expected to lose in 1864, and was expected by most to lose, because his war was not working. More than a year after Gettysburg and Vicksburg, Union armies were still sustaining huge casualties against an obstinate Confederacy, whose armies, half starved and desperate, fought on with relentless determination to hold the independence of what they saw as their country. Then, on September 2 came news that Atlanta had fallen. It changed the mood. The end was in sight. Lincoln won a second term and won it comfortably.
Hurricane Sandy, with its unprecedented destruction, disruption, suffering and mounting death toll has given Obama the opportunity to show he can lead in a crisis, to acclaim from not just Democrats, but Republicans too. The question is whether this opportunity has come too late. The Romney camp believes that it has. We do not have long to wait to find out.