Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

Some Election Numbers

The big question now is whether Nick Clegg’s success in the first TV debate starts a surge towards the third party. This may not be a disaster for Brown, although it would be if all the seats gained by Lib Dems came from Labour. It is as likely that a Lib Dem surge would make Cameron’s huge task even more difficult, although not necessarily so. It is too early to predict anything. All we know is the campaign has changed from a two to a three horse race and nobody living has any experience of this.

What we do know is that when Churchill regained power for the Tories in 1951 the Liberals got 6 seats and when Heath won from Wilson in 1970 once again the Liberals won 6. When Thatcher ousted Callaghan in 1979 they managed 11. However on the back of the Blair massacre of Major in 1997 the Lib Dems went up to 46. Since then they advanced to 52 in 2001 and 62 in 2005; these last two mostly at Labour’s expense. It is difficult to tell whether any gains they could make this time will come from Brown or Cameron. It will depend whether the voting mood is to get rid of Labour or to keep the Tories out. If they keep their 62 they will almost certainly hold the balance of power.

Some other figures are interesting. The greatest number of new seats won by the Tories at any election since WWII was in 1950 when they won 88 new seats but still lost to Labour, although they did mange to scrape in with a further 23 gains in 1951. If Cameron equalled that joint total now he would still be short. In 1970, when the Tories were expected to lose, Heath won convincingly with 77 gains. Thatcher took 62 in 1979.  However in the landslide of 1945 Labour took 239 and in 1997 it was 147. This suggests the country is more willing to swing left in a single go, than swing right. But all of that was on the basis of a two horse race with an ideological divide. Now things look rather different.

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Marginals Poll

There is a new poll of the 100 top marginals which the Tories must win. This shows a 12% swing which the Telegraph, who publish the poll, says puts Cameron on track for a convincing win. It is true that the Tory lead is slightly better in most polls since the launch of their manifesto, although this may be more to do with the media blitz than the content.

However the Telegraph goes on to explain that this would give Cameron 74 of the Labour held marginals and none of those held by the Lib Dems. He needs 117 new seats to win.  According to the Telegraph’s analysis this would give Cameron 74 gains. If that was that, this would give the Tories 272  Labour 281 and the Lib Dems about where they are now. This is not a convincing win. It is actually not as good as the average of all the main polls with a uniform swing, which shows the Tories 32 short. The Telegraph poll puts them 54 down, with Labour in front. This would leave Clegg to do a deal with either or to demand a grand coalition of all Parties to see the country through the crisis. This is what voters really want.

A lot can still happen. Cameron can break out into a real win. Brown can settle in and stop him. Clegg can surge and cause an upset. It is still too early to tell. Too many undecided, too many angry and too many who have given up on the whole process. It is what they do on the day that will determine the outcome. Which is why it is wide open, with hope for all. Even the Telegraph.

Tonight’s debate will be interesting. It may be like the Chancellors’ debate where all did well in their own way with one(Vince) favourite, or one of them may triumph. As we know with celebrity TV, one of them could blow it; remember the 1992 Kinnock rally. It may be the clips on You Tube which will give the best indication of the outcome.

Lib Dem Manifesto

This is by far the best so far. This does not mean that this blog supports every proposal or has abandoned its neutrality. Nor does it mean this Manifesto it is without flaws. If the Lib Dems get to form a government, no commentator takes this prospect seriously, they would have to put up taxes or cut more than they say. But the message is bold, imaginative and focussed. The jewels are breaking up the banks and reform of the voting system with an elected upper house straight off, backed by a written constitution. More power to local government and to Scotland and Wales all reduce centralisation. A simplified exam system will be welcomed by everyone who sees beyond focus group education.

What a difference to all that empowerment stuff from the Tories with drivel phrases like ‘an invitation to join the Government’ or the rose tinted optimism of Labour trying to look fresh. This is a real attempt to offer choice and purpose. It also has  coherent economic proposals (well done Vince). These may not be enough but they are at least something, after the vague contradictions of the Tories and the put it off for now of Labour. Clegg and his Party deserve to be taken very seriously by a disillusioned electorate. Whether that disillusionment now runs too deep remains to be seen on May 6th.

This will all have done the Lib Dems no harm. It may have done them a whole lot of good.

The Conservative Manifesto.

I am not quite sure what to make of this. I would have expected a much more robust approach to cutting the deficit, reducing the size and scope of government and re-invigorating industry to provide local employment and improve the balance of payments. The Tories will argue that it is there in the detail, but there seem to be a lot of bits and pieces like a wandering branch line taking in all the beauty spots when what is needed, because of the urgency of the journey, is a fast, direct, main line.

I am unconvinced that there are votes (except votes already committed) to all this empowering people to take over this and that. I think the public mood is to pay for public services which they expect to be properly run. They note that Labour has failings, but this Manifesto may not convince those voters that the Tories have answers. We shall have to see. There is just a tiny hint that this may be a well to do view of what ordinary people want, rather than a view recognised by those ordinary people themselves.

As for this idea of co-operatives taking over public services. This smacks of Thatcher’s revolution. The sale of council houses, which sparked excessive house price inflation and neighbourhood and housing deprivation. The failure to modernise the national infrastructure. The total fiasco of the privatisation of the utilities, now owned mostly by foreign shareholders and in some vital cases, foreign governments. The idiotic market in energy which has hugely increased costs to the consumer and enriched on incalculable scales socially useless speculators. Finally, and biggest of all, the deregulation of the City, the deregulation of building Societies and the utter and complete breakdown of the principles of safe banking.

The things Thatcher did which were good, included bringing the Unions into a responsible line to help, not hinder, the economy. She made sense out of the tax system and put enterprise back into the economy. She gave the nation back its self confidence and gave ordinary people faith in themselves. She set an example the world copied. The rest, though glossy and exciting at the time, turned out to be an over simplification of what was needed and much has ended up bad. Some of it very bad indeed.

The reason the Tory party has been out of office for all these years is because the voters finally tired of that revolution. Let us hope this neat little volume is not an attempt at a re-make. There are much more urgent things to be done. If Cameron does win a majority and goes about closing things and putting people out of jobs, while giving tax handouts to the better off, giving away public services to co-operatives and telling parents to fix their own schools, he might find himself just where Edward Heath did; Prime Minister of an ungovernable country, which when asked ‘Who governs Britain?’ came back with the answer ‘not you mate!’

Labour’s Manifesto

I am not sure what effect, if any, manifestos have on campaigns at the time. They are often quoted later if the winning party fails to fulfil its promises when in Government. We have three manifestos out this week for the main parties. Labour was first today.

There is nothing in this which will change the campaign. It is broadly neutral with a bit of this and that but no money. It will not energise Labour’s campaign, nor will it derail it. Some things are mildly contentious like Foundation Trusts everywhere and ‘good’ police forces taking over ‘bad’. All of this is easier said than done and usually costs money to make the changes. I do not think that many people care much about the kind of structure that runs a public service. They just want a good service. They see that as the government’s ‘job’.  Constitutional reform is certainly needed and though welcome, Labour’s plans are quite timid.

In the end Labour need to sow the seed of doubt about the Tories. They know that on balance people want a change of government, but not so much as to put whatever recovery we are getting at any more risk. Labour must encourage the idea that the Tories are just too risky and in experienced. Better to leave Labour in charge, with maybe Nick and Vince to help. Especially Vince. That is not really a manifesto sort of message, but it is the only one which will see Labour through.

Resilience

It is difficult to grasp the scope of the disaster which has befallen the Poles with the loss not only of their President, but also so many of their key leaders from the military, Church and business. The fact that they were on their way to honour the memory of an earlier elite gives this tragedy a symbolism of biblical proportions.  

In a devout country  faith will be proclaimed with quiet devotion as this nation, which links Eastern and Western Europe, struggles to come to terms with its grief. Poland and its people will pull through. They have a resilience and courage, perhaps greater than any nation on the Continent, over whose land the tramp of armies passing one way then the other has echoed for centuries past. The proud Polish people will cope and, not for the first time, set all the rest of us an example to admire. 

Our sympathy is heartfelt.

Polls

The latest for the Sun shows the Tory lead falling by three points. At the same time respondents mostly thought the Tories were running the best campaign and Cameron was best at getting his message across. Essentially the polls are bouncing around the same two or three points up one moment for the Tories, down the next and never quite enough to win outright. Could it be that voters are not sure if they like the message?

There is one consistent trend in recent polls; the advance of the Lib Dems. That may have a bigger impact than the bare figures suggest. It will be interesting to see what effect, if any, the manifestos have by this time next week. We will also have had the first TV debate.

Organ Donation

Apparently there  has been another blunder when organs have been removed without prior authorisation of the patient or permission form the family.

I do not go with this. There seems to be confusion between the body and the person. When someone dies the person is no longer there. Where they are or whether is a matter of faith and religious belief. But the body is now discarded and will rot away. There can be no further use for it or its parts by the former occupant. Some of those organs can save a life, give sight or improve life quality in many ways. What better legacy to leave. I am of the view that organ donation should be automatic, with an opt out if you wish.

Married Couples

Whether the latest Tory tax break for married couples will attract other than their core voters is open to question. On the wider point I do think it is unfortunate, when there are such huge cuts causing a really noticeable diminution in public services and significant numbers of public sector job losses, waiting to be announced by whoever wins  the election,  campaigning is centered on these tiny sums. I suppose the Tories can be praised for getting a grip on their campaign and taking the initiative, but we really do need to start talking real.

Meanwhile a point on this tax break for the marrieds. It is also available for civil partnerships. In fact civil partnerships can only be for same sex couples. I know more than one heterosexual couple who dislike marriage but would like to have a civil partnership, but cannot. I think if money is to be available, opposite sex couples will have to be allowed to enter into CP’s. If not I am fairly sure the tax break will be discriminatory and against the law. Times are very different now and laws are there to protect the rights of people to live  equally without becoming victims of discrimination. Even by the tax man.