On the face of it the military operation sponsored by Britain and France, with America as reluctant partner and the Arab league a somewhat fair-weather supporter, is going well. The technology is working well, the weapons appear far more accurate than in the Iraq war and civilian casualties appear minimal, in spite of the claims of Gaddafi T.V. The advance on Benghazi was stopped in the nick of time. Armoured columns have been turned to cinders. The no fly zone is in place. Yet all is far from over.
Worse, nobody knows what over is, when it happens. There is disagreement at every level of command as to who should be in charge and what the mission goal is. Within this confusion the military are doing a very good job, sticking rigidly to the letter of U.N. 1973. But, if stuck to, 1973, as a narrow military mission, is without a political objective, an exit strategy or even a coherent purpose. As has been said here before, you cannot engage in a civil war to stop killing as a narrow aim. You can engage on one side against the other, but then you are sucked into the maelstrom. The rule is you never engage in other people’s civil wars. You can send volunteers, as we did to the American and Spanish civil wars to both sides, but you stay neutral. Likewise, the Congo and Nigeria. Remember Katanga and Biafra?
The problems now are these. Unlike initial appearances, the rebels have no military capacity to win a civil war. They need help to hold onto what they have. It is not clear whether they have a sustainable political system, or even who they actually are. One moment army units are defecting to them, next this military backbone has melted away. Meanwhile organised into infantry units embedded into towns they have recaptured, Gaddafi forces are proving difficult for the Allies to dislodge, without civilian casualties. To shift them would require some considerable degree of bombardment with collateral damage of innocent lives, or ground troops. Both are a no go.
So what happens? The rebels are too weak to win. Gaddafi is too strong to lose. Is it to be two Libyas? The Allies hope that Gaddafi will jack it in or fall victim to a cruise missile while taking his evening promenade. Even then there is no guarantee that there would not be chaos to follow with rival factions forming militias and fighting all over the place. The truth is that hatred of Gaddafi has clouded judgement and hijacked statecraft and common sense. Obama and Gates could see this coming. This is why they held back. This is why America, having shown willing, wants to hand over command.
Amid the argument raging as to who this new commander should be, one question rises above all others. Command of what exactly? If Cameron comes out of this well and does not end up looking a fool, he will be one of the luckiest politicians in history.
I admire the beneficial info you offer inside your content. I’ll bookmark your blog and have my children test up here often. I am quite sure they’ll learn lots of new things right here than anyone else!
Great tinhknig! That really breaks the mold!
Such a deep anwser! GD&RVVF
That’s way the bestest aenswr so far!
IMHO you’ve got the right asnewr!
Haha. I woke up down today. Youve chreeed me up!
Hey, that’s the graeetst! So with ll this brain power AWHFY?
Thats really srhwed! Good to see the logic set out so well.
Glad I’ve finally found smeohitng I agree with!
TYVM you’ve sloevd all my problems
Youre a real deep thinker. Thanks for shairng.
Kudos to you! I hadn’t tuhoght of that!
E3A0kI vvucqaqbizew
That’s not just the best asnewr. It’s the bestest answer!
AFAICT you’ve covered all the bases with this asnewr!
Ppl like you get all the brains. I just get to say thanks for he ansewr.
Home run! Great slugging with that asnewr!
With the bases ladoed you struck us out with that answer!
Real brain power on display. Thanks for that awnser!
YMMD with that anwser! TX
Tochudown! That’s a really cool way of putting it!
Very true! Makes a chagne to see someone spell it out like that. 🙂
You know what, I never thought of it that way. Makes plenty of sense now. Thanks for explaining it so clearly, it really helped me and I’m sure it will help plenty of other people too. All the best!
I was actually a bit confused by all this, but thanks for taking the time to explain anyway. It was quite well written 🙂
This does make sense actually, I was just talking with my friend the other day about this exact same thing. You’ve given me some more ideas now. Can’t wait to tell her about it tomorrow. Thanks!
Very good post over again. Thank you:)
Hey there! Fast question that’s entirely off subject. Do you know how you can make your website mobile friendly? My web-site looks weird when viewing from my iphone. I’m attempting to obtain a template or plugin that could have the ability to fix this issue. If you have any suggestions, please share. With thanks!
Pretty good article. I just stumbled upon your blog and wanted to say that I have really enjoyed reading your blog posts. Any way I’ll be coming back and I hope you post again soon.
Pretty good article. I just stumbled upon your blog and wanted to say that I have really enjoyed reading your blog posts. Any way I’ll be coming back and I hope you post again soon.